Statistical forecast of the grain production development in Kemerovo region
https://doi.org/10.32634/0869-8155-2023-374-9-196-200
Abstract
Relevance. The growth of geopolitical tensions and climate change lead to a decrease in stability in the world grain market, which ensures the relevance of further grain production growth in our country. Such a task is also set for industrial regions that have the necessary capabilities for this, which should increase the level of self-sufficiency. Despite certain successes in recent years, significant reserves remain for further growth in grain production.
Methods. In the course of the study, there were used methods of comparison, economic-statistical, trend analysis of dynamic series, calculation-constructive, abstract-logical and other methods.
Results. Based on the official statistics, an assessment was made of the existing patterns and trends in the dynamics of grain production, incl. on the main crops in the Kemerovo region. The influence of the main factors on the gross harvest of grain crops is determined. A forecast was made for the yield of grain crops based on a trend analysis of time series. The reserves for the growth of sown areas and the gross harvest of grain crops until 2025 were estimated.
About the Authors
A. V. Vidyakin
Kuzbass State Agricultural Academy
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Aleksandr Vladimirovich Vidyakin, Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor
5 Markovtsev Str., Kemerovo, 650056
V. A. Lebed
Kuzbass State Agricultural Academy
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Viktoria Alekseevna Lebed, Graduate Student
5 Markovtsev Str., Kemerovo, 650056
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Review
For citations:
Vidyakin A.V., Lebed V.A. Statistical forecast of the grain production development in Kemerovo region. Agrarian science. 2023;(9):196-200. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32634/0869-8155-2023-374-9-196-200
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