Modeling the dynamics of hunting animal populations in the Leningrad region: model formation and verification, population development forecast
https://doi.org/10.32634/0869-8155-2020-336-3-91-95
Abstract
The article discusses the processes of formation and verification of a modified matrix model of the dynamics of hunting animal populations in the Leningrad region, as well as the calculation of forecast indicators of the dynamics of populations and production of elk and wild boar in the Leningrad region until 2026. When verifying the model for elk, minor deviations were obtained (from 1.8 to 6.7% in absolute value) of the results of solving the modified matrix model from the actual retrospective data, and for the wild boar population model the deviations were from 0.7 to 7.3%, which indicates the adequacy and accuracy of reflecting the dynamics of the elk and wild boar population in the Leningrad region during model experiments.
About the Authors
A. P. Kaledin
Russian state agrarian University – Moscow state
agrarian University named after K.A. Timiryazev
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Doctor of Biological Sciences, Professor of Zoology Department
49, Timiryazevskaya str., Moscow, 127550, Russia
Yu. A. Yuldashbaev
Russian state agrarian University – Moscow state
agrarian University named after K.A. Timiryazev
Russian Federation
Doctor of Agricultural Sciences, Professor, Academician of the RAS
49, Timiryazevskaya str., Moscow, 127550, Russia
Russian Federation
Doctor of Agricultural Sciences, Professor, Academician of the RAS
49, Timiryazevskaya str., Moscow, 127550, Russia
A. I. Filatov
Russian state agrarian University – Moscow state
agrarian University named after K.A. Timiryazev
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor
49, Timiryazevskaya str., Moscow, 127550, Russia
A. M. Ostapchuk
Russian state agrarian University – Moscow state
agrarian University named after K.A. Timiryazev
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
PhD student
49, Timiryazevskaya str., Moscow, 127550, Russia
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Review
For citations:
Kaledin A.P., Yuldashbaev Yu.A., Filatov A.I., Ostapchuk A.M. Modeling the dynamics of hunting animal populations in the Leningrad region: model formation and verification, population development forecast. Agrarian science. 2020;3(3):91-95. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.32634/0869-8155-2020-336-3-91-95
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