Statistical analysis of individual indicators of foreign trade of the Russian Federation in agricultural products

Abstract

Relevance. The problems of the national food security of the Russian Federation in the context of the globalization of the world economy and the increasingly complex foreign policy situation are of particular relevance, since they are closely related to the security of the nation and largely determine not only the potential for general economic growth, but also the level of social tension within the country. In this regard, the importance of studying the dynamics of changes in the main foreign trade indicators and the trade balance of the Russian Federation in relation to agricultural raw materials and food products, as well as the use of various mathematical methods for analyzing and forecasting trends existing in this area, is growing.
Methods. The study of data on the value of indicators of exports and imports of wheat and barley by the Russian Federation was carried out using the methods of mathematical statistics (time series forecasting). The work also used such general scientific approaches as induction, synthesis and analogy.
Results. According to the results of the study, statistical patterns of changes in the volume of exports and imports of the Russian Federation of such important grain crops as wheat and barley were revealed. Based on the use of the time series method and autocorrelation analysis, a prognostic model was formed that makes it possible to evaluate the prospective values of the relevant indicators with an acceptable statistical error.