Analysis of the Current State and Projected Trends of the Global and Russian Meat Markets: A Comparison of FAO, USDA, and OECD Data

Relevance. Meat production is a strategic sector of food security, yet it remains vulnerable to macroeconomic instability, climate change, and evolving trade regulations. Objective — based on a comparative analysis of FAO, USDA, and OECD forecasts, to identify key trends and discrepancies in projections for global and Russian meat markets.
Methods. The study employed monographic and statistical methods, comparative analysis, and expert assessments. The information base comprised data from FAO, USDA, OECD, Rosstat, the Federal Customs Service, and the Ministry of Agriculture of Russia for  2018–2025, with a forecast horizon up to 2034. To assess relationships, Pearson correlation analysis and quantile regression models with time lags were applied.
Results. Global meat production is projected to reach 406 million tons by 2034 (+10%), with poultry maintaining its leading position (40.3% in 2025). Discrepancies between FAO and USDA forecasts were identified (up to 42.9% for poultry meat), driven by differences in offal accounting methodologies. Statistically significant correlations were established for Russian livestock sectors: a strong negative correlation between feed prices and swine inventory (r=–0.91), a positive correlation between subsidies and swine inventory (r=+0.67), and a notable correlation between imports of breeding stock and cattle inventory (r=+0.58). Russia’s share in global production does not exceed: beef — 2.3%, pork — 3.6%, poultry — 4.6%. In the Russian Federation, cattle slaughter decreased by 3.5% in 2025, while poultry output increased by 1.6%. A differentiated approach to government support is proposed, which takes into account the varying sensitivity of livestock subsectors to imports of breeding stock: for pork and poultry production, priority should be given to subsidising feed costs and working capital, while for beef cattle farming, support should focus on developing domestic breeding stock and import substitution. Sustainable development of the meat market requires adapting forecasting methodologies to the purpose of analysis — using USDA data for export strategy planning and FAO data for monitoring domestic food security — as well as expanding targeted support measures for processing enterprises and increasing exports to Southeast Asian countries.

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