Personnel provision of the agro-industrial complex: a balance-based assessment of the contribution of higher agricultural education to covering the annual sectoral demand

Relevance. The Ministry of Agriculture of Russia estimates the annual personnel demand of the agro-industrial complex at 150–160 thousand people, while public estimates of the share of agricultural university graduates entering the sector range from 13 to 70%. The contribution of the university training segment to covering this demand has not been quantified, and the retention target has been related neither to the scale of the demand nor to its structure by qualification level. 
Methods. A balance model of personnel reproduction with a lag between admission and graduation and with first-year outflow; the parameters are taken from the data of the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Science and Higher Education and Rosstat; scenario and inverse calculations; decomposition of the demand by the educational level of the employed; one-way sensitivity analysis. 
Results. With an admission of 73.6 thousand people and a graduation share of 0.636, the annual output is 46.8 thousand graduates. At a retention of 0.13 the university segment covers 3.8–4.1% of the total demand, at the target retention of 0.70 it covers 20.5–21.8%, and at complete retention 29.3–31.2%. The demand for specialists with higher education (15.3% of the employed) is covered at a retention of 0.49–0.52; the remaining 84.7% of the demand falls on workers with secondary vocational education and without vocational education, whom the university segment does not train. The spread of public retention estimates shifts the result by 8.2 percentage points, whereas admission, attrition, first-year outflow and demand shift it by no more than 1.2 points each. Three testable hypotheses on the determinants of retention are formulated for the empirical stage.

1. Bautin V.M., Golubev A.V. The contribution of the rural economy to Russia’s GDP and the implementation of national development goals. Agrarian science. 2025; (7): 178–185 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.32634/0869-8155-2025-396-07-178-185

2. Astafeva O.V., Ulyanova S.A., Perednikh L.V. Labor market problems as a factor constraining the development of the Russian agro-industrial complex. Economy of agricultural and processing enterprises. 2025; (11): 154–161 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.31442/0235-2494-2025-0-11-154-161

3. Bylina S.G. Forecast estimates of labor demand in agriculture in Russia. AIC: economics, management. 2025;(3): 124–134 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.33305/253-124

4. Kurdiumov A.V., Shaibakova L.F., Morozova G.M., Meshcheriagina V.A. Assessment of personnel availability of agriculture for sustainable development of the agricultural sector. Economics of Agriculture of Russia. 2025; (3): 66–72 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.32651/253-66

5. Gerasimov A.N., Skripnichenko Yu.S., Lelikova E.I. Employment and labor productivity in agriculture in Russia: chronology of changes and modern challenges. Economics of Agriculture of Russia. 2025; (10): 34–40 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.32651/2510-34

6. Baryshnikova N., Kireeva N., Martynovich V. Labour shortage in agriculture in the agrarian regions of Russia. International Agricultural Journal. 2025; (6): 720–726 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.55186/25876740_2025_68_6_720

7. Chainikova L.N., Mirzabalaev R.V. Development of human resources potential in agriculture as a factor in reducing imbalances in the labor market. AIC: economics, management. 2025; (1): 108–114 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.33305/251-108

8. Semin A.N. Adaptation of young specialists in business subjects placed in rural territories. Economy of agricultural and processing enterprises. 2022; (8): 45–49 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.31442/0235-2494-2022-0-8-45-49

9. Poltorykhina S.V., Garasimchuk E.G. Prospects for the development of the labor potential of rural areas of russia as a factor in solving the problem of personnel shortage. Economics of Agriculture of Russia. 2024; (12): 44–51 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.32651/2412-44

10. Kopylova Yu.V. Migration processes in rural areas and alternative employment of rural population. Agrarian Bulletin of the Urals. 2023; 23(10): 134–144 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.32417/1997-4868-2023-23-10-134-144

11. Zenkin M.A., Pronkin V.N., Pavlova T.B. Sectoral practices of career guidance for schoolchildren as a training tool for the regional agro-industrial complex. Agrarian science. 2026; (1): 154–160 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.32634/0869-8155-2026-402-01-154-160

12. Shilova A.E., Churkina E.S. Secondary professional agricultural education as a factor of the human capital’s formation and the increasing of region’s agroindustrial complex competitiveness (the example of the regions in the Siberian Federal District). AIC: economics, management. 2025; (7): 89–99 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.33305/257-89

13. Shmeleva A.V. Analysis of the relationship between the level of qualification of workers in production and profit indicators: an economic rationale for investing in personnel training. Agrarian science. 2024; (11): 30–33 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.32634/0869-8155-2024-388-11-30-33

14. Zaremohzzabieh Z., Krauss S.E., D’Silva J.L., Tiraieyari N., Ismail I.A., Dahalan D. Towards agriculture as career: predicting students’ participation in the agricultural sector using an extended model of the theory of planned behavior. The Journal of Agricultural Education and Extension. 2022; 28(1): 67–92. https://doi.org/10.1080/1389224X.2021.1910523

15. Haryati N., Lasitya D.S., Nurirrozak M.Z., Herdianti D.F., Fibrianingtyas A., Hidayat A.R.T. Demographics and course choices: impact on youth farming intention in Indonesia. International Journal of Adolescence and Youth. 2024; 29(1): 2358088. https://doi.org/10.1080/02673843.2024.2358088

16. Mattas K. et al. Facilitating generational renewal in rural areas by responding to young farmers’ voices: Echoes from the Greek territory. Journal of Rural Studies. 2024; 112: 103480. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jrurstud.2024.103480

17. Sivini S., Vitale A. Multifunctional and Agroecological Agriculture as Pathways of Generational Renewal in Italian Rural Areas. Sustainability. 2023; 15(7): 5990. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15075990

18. Kovács K., Váradi M.M. ‘We need to stay alive’: ethnicisation and shortage of farm labour in Hungary. Scottish Geographical Journal. 2024; 140(1–2): 136–154. https://doi.org/10.1080/14702541.2023.2287442

19. Zhang H., Li J., Quan T. Strengthening or Weakening: The Impact of an Aging Rural Workforce on Agricultural Economic Resilience in China. Agriculture. 2023; 13(7): 1436. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture13071436

20. Polevaya M.V. Strategies for attracting young people (Generation Z) to agriculture: from agricultural rebranding to digital professions of the future. Economy of agricultural and processing enterprises. 2025; (7): 104–110 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.31442/0235-2494-2025-0-7-104-110

21. Buraeva E.V. Personnel training system for digital agricultural economy: main perspectives and limitations. Bulletin of agrarian science. 2023; (4): 132–139 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.17238/issn2587-666x.2023.4.132

22. Balezentis T., Ribasauskiene E., Morkunas M., Volkov A., Streimikiene D., Toma P. Young farmers’ support under the Common Agricultural Policy and sustainability of rural regions: Evidence from Lithuania. Land Use Policy. 2020; 94: 104542. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2020.104542