Volatility of the production base and fiscal position of Russia’s agrarian regions: a multidimensional typology of federal subjects

Relevance. Regions specialising in agriculture form their budget revenues while the national gross grain harvest changes from year to year by tens of millions of tonnes, and most leading agricultural producers receive federal equalisation grants. The aim of the study was to assess the budgetary risks of agrarian regions arising from the year-to-year variability of the gross grain harvest and from the mismatch between the location of production, exports and the grant position of the regions, and to substantiate the differentiation of budgetary and agricultural policy instruments by type of region. 
Methods. The coefficient of variation, the linear trend and the probability of a poor harvest were calculated from Rosstat data on gross harvests of grain and leguminous crops  for 2020–2025. The concentration of production and of agri-food exports was measured by the share of the ten leading regions. The regions were grouped using the list of the Ministry  of Finance of Russia and the rating of the Agroexport Federal Centre. 
Results. No statistically significant trend in the gross harvest was found (p = 0.765); the coefficient of variation was 9.7%, and the probability of a harvest below 130 million tonnes was 0.288. The ten leading regions account for 67.9% of exports and 38.9% of production. Of the ten largest producers, only Belgorod Oblast and the Republic of Tatarstan receive no equalisation grant in 2025. It is shown that the budgetary risk of an agrarian region is realised through expenditure obligations rather than through tax revenues, and therefore policy instruments are differentiated across the four identified types of regions. 

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